Braves Begin Critical Series With Red Hot Phillies

By: Harry Crowther

Something has to give in Philadelphia as the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies, both riding six-game win streaks, square off in a crucial NL-East showdown at Citizens Bank Park.

The Braves took all four games from the Rockies at Truist Park over the weekend outsourcing Colorado 40-12. The Phillies, who struggled to start the season without Bryce Harper, return home after a seven-game road trip last week having won 13 of their last 15 games. Atlanta tops the NL East standings with a 46-26 record while the resurgent Phillies are eight games back at 38-34.

Ronald Acuña Jr. continues to lead the way at the top of a stacked Braves lineup that leads all of Major League Baseball in home runs and OPS. The current betting favorite to win the NL MVP, Acuña is second in the National League in hitting at .325 and second in OPS at .964 among qualified players. He is on pace to hit 34 home runs and swipe 68 bags. Matt Olson leads the team in home runs with 20 and Ozzie Albies has driven in a team best 52 runs. Orlando Arcia has filled the sizable void left by Dansby Swanson as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop hitting .341 with a .890 OPS in 51 games. Last year’s rookie of the year, Michael Harris II, struggled to start the year but has heated up as of late. Harris boasts a .556 average over the last seven days and went five-for-five in the series finale against Colorado. Eddie Rosario enters Philadelphia hot as well with 5 homers and 11 RBIs in the last week. Austin Riley, the linchpin of the Braves’ offense a year ago, is slumping despite Atlanta’s win streak hitting .172 with a .422 OPS in his last seven games.

After a tough first year in Philadelphia, Nick Castellanos has bounced back to spearhead the Phillies’ lineup. He leads the team in average (.315) and OPS (.851) among qualified players. Since returning from injury, Harper has only left the yard three times but owns a solid slash line of .296/.391/.421. J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber are hot at the plate each with an average over .300 and an OPS over 1.000 over the last seven days. Star shortstop and prized offseason acquisition Trea Turner (.247/.297/.385) continues to battle a season-long slump after signing a 11-year deal worth $300 million.

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Game One: Tuesday, 6:40 p.m., Spencer Strider (7-2, 4.12 ERA) vs. Ranger Suárez (1-2, 3.82 ERA)

Strider leads all of baseball in strikeouts with 127 in 78 and two-thirds innings but is coming off his two worst starts of the year. Against the Mets and Tigers combined, he allowed 13 earned runs in nine innings. The last time Strider pitched seven innings or more and allowed one run or fewer was April 24 against the Marlins.

Left-hander Suárez will make his eighth start for the Phillies this season after starting the year on the shelf. He allowed 12 runs over 11 innings in his first three starts. But in his last three, Suárez has only surrendered two runs over 20 innings. All told, 15 batters have gone down on strikes in Suárez’s last two outings.

Game Two: Wednesday, 6:40 p.m., AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA)

Smith-Shawver, Atlanta’s top prospect according to MLB.com, made his major-league debut this season at only 20 years of age and has slotted into the rotation because of injuries to star arms Max Fried and Kyle Wright. In three appearances (two starts), Smith-Shawver has allowed just two earned runs in 13 and a third innings.

Nola, now 30, having spent his entire nine-year career with Philadelphia and pitching in a walk year, has not been the ace he has been. A 4.66 ERA is the highest of his career since his age-23 season in 2016. Like Strider, Nola was knocked around in his last two starts allowing 10 earned runs in 13 innings.

Game Three: Thursday, 1:05 p.m., Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA)

In a year when Braves’ starting pitching has been sporadic (Strider and Charlie Morton) and injury-ridden (Fried and Wright), Elder has been their saving grace. He leads the team in ERA and innings pitched and is second in the National League in ERA. Against the Nationals and the Mets earlier this month, Elder surrendered a combined nine runs but bounced back last time out allowing only one to the Rockies over six innings of work.

Walker is scheduled to make his 16th start for Philadelphia Thursday after signing a four-year deal worth $72 million with the Phillies in free agency. Last season with the Mets, Walker posted a 3.49 ERA over 157 and a third innings. His Phillies career did not get off to the best start (he allowed eight runs to the Dodgers in early May) but Walker’s last three outings have been strong; in 20 innings, only one runner crossed the plate.

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It’s a consequential week for both ball clubs. The Braves have the most talented lineup top to bottom in the NL East (and maybe all of baseball) but injuries and inconsistency have plagued Atlanta pitchers. The Phillies, last year’s pennant winners, are starting to play like expected and have a chance to eat into Atlanta’s lead. Starting pitching might be the key in this three-game set with both staffs looking to find their groove and stifle dangerous lineups. A sweep by either team would send a serious message to the other and set the tone for the stretch run. Even over the course of a 162-game season, momentum is huge in baseball. Both teams have it. One team is about to lose it.