The Dodgers have agreed to a new deal with free agent and longtime ace southpaw Clayton Kershaw, according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He is scheduled to take a physical this Thursday. Kershaw, who is represented by Excel Sports Management, underwent shoulder surgery in November 2023 and is expected to be out of commission into the second half of the season. Thursday is the first day the Dodgers can place a player directly onto the 60-day injured list, it is probable that he will head straight to the 60-day IL, where he will likely be joined by other injured pitchers such as Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May.
Assuming he is able to suit up and take the mound at some point prior to their playoff run, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have started to rear their ugly head and father time is knocking at the door for Kershaw, who has not reached the 30 start threshold in a season since 2015, however, the quality of his output remains among the game’s elite. From a seven-year stretch, 2009-15, Kershaw was a work horse that could eat up innings, averaging 32 starts per year, won four consecutive ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, his durability has fallen off, averaging just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a filthy 2.55 ERA, including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four campaigns.
Embed from Getty ImagesKershaw was clearly injured and was not pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and skipper Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. The Dodgers put him on an innings and pitch count, limiting Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one outing in his return from the injured list, a 5 1/3-inning performance in his swan song of the season. Along the way, Kershaw’s average heater was unrecognizable, dipping to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return, including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.
Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both considerably down from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had left in the tank on any given day. He got quality starts and did not allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The Arizona Diamondbacks put a crooked number on the board against him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season with a bad taste in his mouth.
It is not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they will presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty.
Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt have yet to pitch full big league seasons.
The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently will not be a obstacle as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for another season.
Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.
